Most of you may know Michael Pachter from his show “Pach Attack” on Gametrailers, where he usually answers questions about the gaming industry. But few of you may also know that Michael Pachter is a Game Business Analyst.
What does Michael Pachter Do ?
He provides forecasts , analysis and long term solutions for the gaming industry. Recently Pachter showed an estimate of what’s going to happen with consoles by 2016. Pachter made a conclusion based on several assumptions and put forward the future of how consoles would be doing by the year 2016 in a simple email.
The Future of Next Gen Consoles
This is how it goes: We expect Sony’s and Microsoft’s new consoles to thrive over the next three years, with cumulative worldwide sales of 37.7 million PS4 and 29 million Xbox One consoles by year-end 2016. We do not expect Nintendo’s Wii U to fare as well, with cumulative sales of under 20 million by 2016.
- Our overall forecast is based upon several assumptions: first, we expect console prices to decline only modestly over the next three years, with PS4 pricing in the U.S. dropping from $399.99 at launch to $299.99 by 2016 and with Xbox One pricing in the U.S. dropping from $499.99 at launch to $349.99 by 2016; second, we expect new release software pricing to remain at $59.99 in the U.S. for the next three years; finally, we expect Nintendo to continue producing the Wii U. Should any of these assumptions prove to be incorrect, hardware and software sales will be affected, and it is highly likely that the ultimate results will differ significantly from our forecast.
Console Prices Will Drop
The price dropping for next generation consoles is something we already knew would happen sometime in the future, but when exactly no-one knows. But according to Pachtes conclusion, Sony’s Playstation 4 seems to be the clear winner of the console wars, hitting an estimated 37.7 million units sold by 2016.
Microsoft’s Xbox One will trail behind with only 29 million units estimated to be sold by 2016. A little bit of the blame could be its pricing, when someone can buy a console with similar specs that’s 100 cheaper why shouldn’t they ? If you’re interested in resolutions, some Xbox One games are capped at 720p, while the PS4 is offering a full 1080p native resolution.
Another console Pachter mentioned was Nintendo’s Wii U, which seems will be continued. Still all these calculations are just a theory based on assumptions, and the extreme results would differ. But the results seem promising as Sony is already in very good shape compared to other consoles.