HomeConsolesMichael Pachter Business Analyst Says The PS4 Will Dominate Ahmed K. December 30, 2013 Consoles Most of you may know Michael Pachter from his show “Pach Attack” on Gametrailers, where he usually answers questions about the gaming industry. But few of you may also know that Michael Pachter is a Game Business Analyst. What does Michael Pachter Do ? He provides forecasts , analysis and long term solutions for the gaming industry. Recently Pachter showed an estimate of what’s going to happen with consoles by 2016. Pachter made a conclusion based on several assumptions and put forward the future of how consoles would be doing by the year 2016 in a simple email. The Future of Next Gen Consoles This is how it goes: We expect Sony’s and Microsoft’s new consoles to thrive over the next three years, with cumulative worldwide sales of 37.7 million PS4 and 29 million Xbox One consoles by year-end 2016. We do not expect Nintendo’s Wii U to fare as well, with cumulative sales of under 20 million by 2016. - Our overall forecast is based upon several assumptions: first, we expect console prices to decline only modestly over the next three years, with PS4 pricing in the U.S. dropping from $399.99 at launch to $299.99 by 2016 and with Xbox One pricing in the U.S. dropping from $499.99 at launch to $349.99 by 2016; second, we expect new release software pricing to remain at $59.99 in the U.S. for the next three years; finally, we expect Nintendo to continue producing the Wii U. Should any of these assumptions prove to be incorrect, hardware and software sales will be affected, and it is highly likely that the ultimate results will differ significantly from our forecast. Console Prices Will Drop The price dropping for next generation consoles is something we already knew would happen sometime in the future, but when exactly no-one knows. But according to Pachtes conclusion, Sony’s Playstation 4 seems to be the clear winner of the console wars, hitting an estimated 37.7 million units sold by 2016. Microsoft’s Xbox One will trail behind with only 29 million units estimated to be sold by 2016. A little bit of the blame could be its pricing, when someone can buy a console with similar specs that’s 100 cheaper why shouldn’t they ? If you’re interested in resolutions, some Xbox One games are capped at 720p, while the PS4 is offering a full 1080p native resolution. Another console Pachter mentioned was Nintendo’s Wii U, which seems will be continued. Still all these calculations are just a theory based on assumptions, and the extreme results would differ. But the results seem promising as Sony is already in very good shape compared to other consoles. Solid Snake No shiit. Way to point out the obvious pachter. Volfos Wii-U is gonna sell waaay better than he estimates. Even if the Wii-U doesn’t catch fire like the 3DS. Dave The PS4 is in incredible demand, I live in UK an I can tell you ALL the shops and retailers in the UK had sold out of PS4 stock many times over before and during Christmas this year, it was almost impossible to get hold of one. My German friend said it was the same situation in Germany, and from what I hear it is the same all over the world. VA1N I went to Target the day after Christmas. The PS4 display was completely empty. The Xbox One? Fully stocked. I did see one person walking around with an Xbox One before leaving the store though so they did sell one but there must have been 10 Xbox One’s in the display case with who knows how many in the back. That doesn’t look food for Microsoft especially when the PS4 shelf is constantly empty. plcn you described my experience at target on two different occasions… it could be that target simply bought more x1’s in expectation of a its sales to mimic the 360’s in the early days… or simply that not a lot of people want one at $499… VA1N Pretty sure it’s the latter. Think about it. If they didn’t care which system they got they would just buy the Xbox One when they realized the PS4 wasn’t there. Instead, they leave the Xbox One’s alone and just wait for more PS4’s to come out. HalfBlackCanadian Definitely more Xboxes on shelves, however there are more in the wild as well. I’ll ask about PS4 every time I see Xboxes on shelves (specifically why it’s available and not the other) and get a response that they have received more from MS than Sony, but that demand is also lower. Its a bad situation for MS compounded by people over-simplifying the issue. Its both not selling as terribly as people want to make it seem nor is it simply shipping 3x the units into stores… its a combination of the two (more stock, less sales). I would say Sony is realistically selling 40% better.